First, depending on the progress of the situation, if there is no follow-up action, there will be no impact on the Syria’s impact on the steel market. This is mainly due to the impact on the mindset and indirect conductive influences, as investors will worry about the occurrence of global warfare. Then there will be risk aversion and a pessimistic view of the global economy. The stock market and commodity market will fall, which is naturally detrimental to the steel market. In fact, the United States and its allies have already prepared for a military strike against Syria. The market has already anticipated, and the capital market has reflected in advance. The prices of oil and gold have risen sharply. If there is no further action, the impact on the capital and commodity markets will be small, and the impact on the steel market will be negligible. However, there are still some uncertainties in the development of the current situation. After the attack, U.S. Defense Secretary Matisse said that the strike plan tonight has been completed and there are no more plans. Earlier, Trump said that the United States will continue to bomb Syria until the Syrian government stops using CW attacks.
Second, if Russia and the United States directly confront each other, the impact of a major and far-reaching war on the global economy will be complicated. It will be beneficial to individual countries and also beneficial to the world. However, the impact on global integrity is undoubtedly bad. . If the United States, Britain, and France continue their military strike against Syria, the war may spread to the periphery, which will push up oil prices and reduce international trade. The Middle East is an important trade object of China and a source of crude oil imports. At the same time, it is also an important incremental region for China’s steel exports. If the war continues, it will have a negative impact on China’s imports and exports, and steel exports will also be reduced, but as long as The war will not be fought, and its impact will remain limited. What is more worrying now is that the U.S.’s attack on Syria has already damaged the interests of Russia. Moreover, the relationship between Russia and the West has not been very good for a long time. For this action, the Russian State Duma responded with a hard reaction. Alexander Sherin, the first deputy chairman of the Russian Duma Defence Committee, stated that the United States launched a military strike against Syria in violation of international law and was an “aggression” against Russia. From the standpoint of the Russian side, Russia may take targeted actions in response to this action by the United States. If Russia and the United States directly confront each other, the impact on the global economy and commodity markets will be disruptive. Due to the mutability of Trump, it remains to be seen how the situation in Syria and the Middle East will evolve, and how its impact will be further analyzed.
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Post time: Apr-16-2018